Why Verstappen Deserved to Win the 2021 World Championship
Ever since the controversial final race of the 2021 F1 season, where Max Verstappen won the Formula 1 World Drivers’ Championship, the internet has been divided in opinion as to who the worthy winner really was. In case you missed the tea, Verstappen won the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (and thus, the season, as Hamilton and Verstappen entered the final race on equal points) after race director Michael Masi bent some rules to ensure the race didn’t finish behind a safety car. His improvisation of the rules also meant that Verstappen was able to pass Hamilton on fresher tyres to win the race, and thus his first title, despite the fact that until then in the race, Hamilton was cruising to a victory. This decision left #TeamLH fans furious, and eventually resulted in the removal of Masi from his role.
But, in F1, winning a championship isn’t solely determined by one race. It takes a whole season of being on top of your game to become a world champion. So, here at Wonderkid HQ we asked ourselves the question; if we look at data from the whole of the 2021 F1 season, was Max Verstappen or Lewis Hamilton the deserving winner? Controversy aside.
Qualification
To start our analysis, we looked at data from all qualifying sessions from the 2021 season, to see if a particular driver stood out.
Breakdown of all pole sitters after qualifiers
What we found was that Hamilton and Verstappen finished on pole in 16 of the 22 qualifiers (72.73%) of the season between them. It’s clear the rivals were in a league of their own. When we break it down, we see that both drivers won the Pirelli Pole Position Award (the most coveted prize in the sport) eight times (36%) each. So at this stage, there is nothing splitting the drivers. 0-0.
However, points aren’t scored on a Saturday in qualifying, but on a Sunday in the race. So let’s look more closely at race data to see what it will uncover.
Race Laps
One argument from Hamilton fans was that because he was leading for the majority of the season finale, he deserved to win the race and therefore the title. With this in mind, let’s look at all race laps from the season, to see who was more dominant overall.
Proportion of laps lead
Verstappen lead an astonishing 50.3% of all laps last season. This is more than double Hamilton’s somewhat measly in comparison 22.9%.
So, if Hamilton fans think that he deserved to win the final race because he had led most of the laps, using the same logic, doesn’t Verstappen deserve to win overall?
Drivers’ Championship Points
At this stage I’d say it’s 1-0 to Verstappen, so let’s see how he does in other metrics. Next let’s look at championship points. The graph below shows live Drivers’ Championship points, as they stood, at the end of every race lap of the season.
Live Drivers’ Championship points per race lap (Click for Full Screen).
In this graph, you can really see the tough battle between the two drivers over the whole season, almost matching each other at every lap (pay particular attention to the top right of the graph, which shows the final lap switch!). But, who was in the lead of the Drivers’ Championship the most? Closer examination of the data reveals that Verstappen was leading for the majority of race laps, at ~68% of the time.
Conclusion
When you take a step back and look at the data presented, Verstappen probably had a slight edge over Hamilton over all. And while the F1 season is a marathon, not a sprint (race), either driver would undoubtedly have been a deserving winner. After all, they both entered the final race on even points and most fans agree that Verstappen won under dubious circumstances.
Flippantly titled article aside, as a relatively neutral fan of this rivalry*, last year’s season was a delight to watch and witness. The constant flip-flopping of the championship leader made F1 exciting to watch, a feeling many fans have been craving in recent years. Uncertainty in who is going to win is what generates intrigue and excitement in sport. Not who’s going to come second, or fifth, or tenth, like in the last few seasons, but who is going to win. Let’s hope that this great racing continues into the 2022 season and beyond. This year, there are (allegedly) exciting new regulations in place, and contentious race directors and their rule bending are hopefully a thing of the past. It should be a cracker.
*Okay, maybe I favoured Verstappen slightly, but only because I like an underdog.